Russian Hill’s car break-ins, counted every reasonable way

How to read this page

• Each row is one way to count the same thing. We fixed the choices before we ran them, and every combination is here.
• The dot is the estimate. For a ratio, 1 means no change and 2 means twice as many. For a difference in points, 0 means no change.
• The bar is the range the true value most likely falls in (95%).
• The p-value says how often a gap this big would turn up by chance alone, if nothing had changed. Below 0.05 is a common line, not a law.
• Read the pattern across the rows. One row, picked alone, can be made to say almost anything.